0%
Loading ...

IPRG RESEARCH PUBLICATION

The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, Obodo Lotachi

Citation :


Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, & Obodo Lotachi. (2026). The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence from A Cross-Country Survey. Institute For Policy Research & Governance, 1(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19805131

Abstract

Climate change presents considerable global threats, particularly in regions that are dependent on climate sensitive livelihoods. While advances in climate forecasting have improved the availability and accuracy of climate information, a persistent gap remains between information access and actual adaptive behaviour. This study investigates the behavioural mechanisms that translate climate forecasts into adaptive action using a cross-country survey of 309 respondents across six countries: India, Kenya, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria and Japan. Using quantitative method including descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation and multiple linear regression, this study examined the roles of Access to Climate Forecast Information (ACF), Trust in Climate Information (TCI) and Climate Risk Perception (CRP) in shaping Climate Adaptation Behaviour (CAB). Descriptive analysis revealed a pronounced perception-action gap: climate risk perception was high (mean = 4.09) while adaptation behaviour remained moderate (mean = 3.53). Regression analysis demonstrated that trust in climate information (β =0.299, p < 0.001) and access to forecasts (β = 0.179, p = 0.003) were significant predictors of adaptive behaviour, whereas risk perception alone was not statistically significant (p = 0.275). These findings carry important implications for designing climate services and evidence-based policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate Adaptation Behaviour; Climate Forecasts; Trust in Information; Risk
Perception; Cross-Country Analysis; Climate Policy

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Publications

Impact of the Smart Cities Mission on Household Cost of Living, Access to Urban Services, and Economic Well-Being: A Field Study of Selected Indian Cities

Authors : Anjana Tripathi ; Divya Natarajan ; Gautam Kumar Mishra ; Soumili Rakshit

Abstract

India’s Smart Cities Mission (SCM), launched in 2015, aims to improve urban livability through targeted investments in infrastructure, service delivery, and digital governance. However, empirical evidence on the household-level economic implications of these interventions remains limited. This study examines the impact of the Smart Cities Mission on household cost of living, access to urban services, and economic well-being in selected Indian cities using a comprehensive secondary data approach.

The analysis integrates unit-level data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) Consumer Expenditure and Housing Conditions rounds to assess changes in household consumption patterns, housing affordability, and expenditure on utilities and transportation. Employment outcomes and income-related proxies are examined using the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), while demographic characteristics, housing quality, and access to basic amenities are drawn from the Census of India. City-level information on project type, investment size, and sectoral focus is sourced from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) Smart Cities Mission dashboards and official reports. A comparative framework is employed to analyze trends across Smart Cities and non-Smart Cities, as well as pre- and post-SCM implementation periods.

By triangulating multiple nationally representative datasets with administrative project data, the study evaluates whether Smart City investments have translated into measurable improvements in household welfare or have contributed to rising costs and uneven access to services. The findings aim to provide evidence-based insights for strengthening the inclusiveness, affordability, and effectiveness of urban development policies under the Smart Cities Mission.

Keywords :
Smart Cities Mission; Secondary Data Analysis; National Sample Survey; Periodic Labour Force Survey; Census of India; Urban Services Access; Household Cost of Living; Economic Well- Being; Urban Policy; Indian Cities

Read More »
Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management

Authors : Hridoy Pran Sarma , Ashi Agrawal

Abstract :

In the modern-day world, war is not only about fighting on the battlefield but also
manipulating the belief of the opponent country using intelligence. During war escalation, people form opinions based not on their personal experience, but from news stories and government releases, along with other posts on social media. As a result, they become more susceptible to misperceptions; these are misconstrued situations employed to frighten, sow discord and garner the unthinking support of the public for the providing of military firepower. Due to an increase in the use of social media and modern means of communication, this task has become even easier as not everyone is well-equipped to measure what is happening during wars. Misconceived observations of the conflict can aggravate and harm the process of resolution. The paper seeks to ascertain the role of the government and media in distorting the public opinion during wars by analysing case studies such as Russia – Ukraine War and other major wars worldwide. Usage of management perceptions, misinformation, and the war in which does escalate.

Keywords:
  Perception Management, Misinformation, War Escalation, Public Opinion, Media Literacy, Information Warfare.

Read More »
Gendered Human Capital Misallocation in India: Education, Labour Market Barriers, and Policy Failure

Authors: Simran Sinha; Beaulah Anton; Priyansi; Rezaa Sharma

Abstract:

India has made significant progress in expanding female education, yet women’s labour market outcomes remain disproportionately poor. This study reframes this paradox as an issue of gendered human capital misallocation, rather than a deficit in skill formation. It examines how the gendered labour market constraints impede the educated women from productive employment, leading to underutilisation of skills and decreased economic efficiency.

Utilising a qualitative-descriptive approach and secondary data from multiple databases, this paper examines unemployment, occupational segregation, unpaid care work, and wage disparities between educated women and their male counterparts. The findings show a persistent education-employment paradox: increased female education correlates with high unemployment, informalisation, and labour force withdrawal. These patterns are driven by demand-side discrimination, inflexible work arrangements, safety and challenges in mobility, and unequal distribution of care responsibilities. The analysis argues that government policies have largely prioritised educational expansion without addressing labour market absorption, therefore sustaining gendered inefficiencies. Addressing this inefficient allocation is what makes it important for optimal human capital utilisation and for inclusive economic growth.

Keywords:
Human Capital, Female labour, Labour market segmentation, Gender wage gap, public policy, employment, Human capital misallocation

Read More »
BRICS Plus and Contested Multilateralism: Policy Coordination, Internal Tensions, and the Role of Emerging Middle Powers in Global Governance Reform

Authors: Kamatchi Devi S; Revanth Udutha; Vanshita Baid

Abstract

Academic research has increased its focus on BRICS Plus expansion which occurred during the early 2020s because researchers want to determine whether this alliance serves as a counterforce against the Western-dominated liberal international order or operates mainly as a national interest-driven platform. The research investigates how BRICS Plus members coordinate their policies while assessing their global governance reform efforts and studying how the group handles internal conflicts which arise from the ongoing competition between India and China. The study uses qualitative research methods to analyze secondary data from BRICS summit declarations and institutional documents and existing academic literature. BRICS Plus shows increasing rhetorical unity and institutional governance reform collaboration but actual governance reform partnerships remain limited because of power imbalances and different national objectives and clashing leadership goals. Indian, Brazilian, and South African emerging middle powers use BRICS to improve their strategic independence and international recognition instead of establishing a unified movement against existing power structures. The research demonstrates that BRICS Plus functions as a contested multilateral system which permits international governance changes to proceed through minor
adjustments that avoid major transformations of the current global system.

Key words :
BRICS Plus Expansion, Contested Multilateralism, Global
Governance Reform, Emerging Middle Powers, Policy Coordination and Power
Asymmetries

Read More »
Gender Neutrality In Law , State & Society

Abstract

An interdisciplinary approach is attempted in this paper to analyse the interplay between gender neutrality and
access to justice. While gender neutrality is often said to be a very progressive idea in law, a host of new problems
are generated when it is applied in a postcolonial society like India. The paper draws from the disciplines such
as law, political science, international relations, history, and statistics to criticize the assumption that neutrality
would bring forth justice all by itself.
Legal analyses show that gender-neutral laws may in fact sometimes uphold patriarchal structures when no steps
are taken to address the underlying inequalities. The political approach ponders over the questions of how
governance, policy language, and representation impact the availability of justice for gender-diverse individuals.
From a data standpoint, it illustrates how binary data catapult non-binary identities into the margins. From a
historical and international perspective, the modern laws are seated within colonial legacies and critique the
global human rights discourse for its limited inclusiveness.
We argue that gender neutrality, though important, remains alone insufficient. A meaningful framework of access
to justice must be context-sensitive, historically aware, and structurally inclusive of all gender identities.

Keywords: Gender Neutrality, Access to Justice, Constitutional Law, Gender-Based Violence, Public Policy,
Legal Reform, Colonial Legacy, International Norms, Gender Data, Inclusive Governance

Read More »
China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Debt Diplomacy or Development Financing? A Comparative Case Study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan

Authors : Aaditya Dewansh, Huny Thakkar, Edward Mbeleki, Mansha Arya, Zinte Kula

Abstract :

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, has generated sustained debate over whether it functions as a deliberate instrument of debt diplomacy aimed at strategic asset acquisition, or as a development financing mechanism responding to genuine infrastructure deficits in recipient countries. This paper addresses that question through a comparative case study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan: two BRI-engaged South Asian states that share the same creditor yet exhibit structurally distinct outcomes. Drawing on a three-tier qualitative methodology combining comparative case analysis, historical examination of high-value BRI projects, and content analysis of “debt-trap diplomacy” discourse, we argue that strategic dependency in both cases emerges not from engineered default, but through two distinct pathways: fiscal vulnerability in Sri Lanka and infrastructural entrenchment in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, domestic governance failures and aggressive external commercial borrowing produced the conditions for the 2017 Hambantota Port concession, driven by a new government’s fiscal desperation rather than predatory Chinese design. In
Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) generated long-term institutional lock-in through the sheer scale of energy infrastructure investment and an asymmetric bureaucratic coordination model. Across both cases, local political elites exercised agency in seeking Chinese capital to bypass Western conditionalities, and dependency emerged as a by-product of borrower governance failures and project scale rather than Chinese strategic calculation. These findings challenge the binary of debt diplomacy versus development financing, offering instead a mechanism-based account of how BRI engagement produces different forms of strategic influence in different political-economic contexts.

Keywords:
Belt and Road Initiative, debt diplomacy, strategic dependency, fiscal
vulnerability, infrastructure entrenchment

Read More »
error: Content is protected !!
Scroll to Top