IPRG PUBLICATION

The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, Obodo Lotachi

Citation :

Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, & Obodo Lotachi. (2026). The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence from A Cross-Country Survey. Institute For Policy Research & Governance, 1(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19805131

Download Pdf

Abstract

Climate change presents considerable global threats, particularly in regions that are dependent on climate sensitive livelihoods. While advances in climate forecasting have improved the availability and accuracy of climate information, a persistent gap remains between information access and actual adaptive behaviour. This study investigates the behavioural mechanisms that translate climate forecasts into adaptive action using a cross-country survey of 309 respondents across six countries: India, Kenya, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria and Japan. Using quantitative method including descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation and multiple linear regression, this study examined the roles of Access to Climate Forecast Information (ACF), Trust in Climate Information (TCI) and Climate Risk Perception (CRP) in shaping Climate Adaptation Behaviour (CAB). Descriptive analysis revealed a pronounced perception-action gap: climate risk perception was high (mean = 4.09) while adaptation behaviour remained moderate (mean = 3.53). Regression analysis demonstrated that trust in climate information (β =0.299, p < 0.001) and access to forecasts (β = 0.179, p = 0.003) were significant predictors of adaptive behaviour, whereas risk perception alone was not statistically significant (p = 0.275). These findings carry important implications for designing climate services and evidence-based policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate Adaptation Behaviour; Climate Forecasts; Trust in Information; Risk
Perception; Cross-Country Analysis; Climate Policy

Leave a Comment Cancel Reply

The Growing Strategic Importance of the Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for Asian Countries

Authors : Subhash Gill , Sneha Gupta

ABSTRACT

The current study examines how the Indo-Pacific architecture is perceived by India and China and how these visions shape economic and diplomatic relations in the region. The study asks how India’s and China’s competing visions of the Indo-Pacific shape their economic and diplomatic engagement with regional actors, particularly ASEAN. The paper argues that Chinese and Indian strategic principles and diplomatic approaches regarding regional dynamics are necessary contexts for understanding the economic and political policies pursued through regional institutional frameworks. It demonstrates that China primarily frames the Indo-Pacific through economic connectivity and regional multipolarity, while India increasingly approaches the region through strategic balancing, maritime security and diversified economic partnerships. Previous research papers in the field mostly examined these dynamics from a one-country perspective, treating economic and political dimensions mostly separately; however, this paper aims to provide a comparative understanding of two visions represented by Indo-Pacific dominant players based on their official statements and bilateral and multilateral initiatives. This methodological approach facilitates the understanding of recent institutional crises in renewed India-China dialogues and possible diplomatic resolutions based on analysis of key state principles pursued by both sides to achieve stable maritime security and economic cooperation.

KEYWORDS:
Indo-Pacific, maritime security, economic cooperation, India, China, ASEAN

Gender Neutrality In Law , State & Society

Abstract

An interdisciplinary approach is attempted in this paper to analyse the interplay between gender neutrality and
access to justice. While gender neutrality is often said to be a very progressive idea in law, a host of new problems
are generated when it is applied in a postcolonial society like India. The paper draws from the disciplines such
as law, political science, international relations, history, and statistics to criticize the assumption that neutrality
would bring forth justice all by itself.
Legal analyses show that gender-neutral laws may in fact sometimes uphold patriarchal structures when no steps
are taken to address the underlying inequalities. The political approach ponders over the questions of how
governance, policy language, and representation impact the availability of justice for gender-diverse individuals.
From a data standpoint, it illustrates how binary data catapult non-binary identities into the margins. From a
historical and international perspective, the modern laws are seated within colonial legacies and critique the
global human rights discourse for its limited inclusiveness.
We argue that gender neutrality, though important, remains alone insufficient. A meaningful framework of access
to justice must be context-sensitive, historically aware, and structurally inclusive of all gender identities.

Keywords: Gender Neutrality, Access to Justice, Constitutional Law, Gender-Based Violence, Public Policy,
Legal Reform, Colonial Legacy, International Norms, Gender Data, Inclusive Governance

Trending but Not Transforming: Generation Z’s Social Media Activism and Its Diplomatic Impact in International Relations

Authors : Gayatri Gaikwad , Mehak Bhutani , Amina Dossa, Shalini Sarkar, Zainab Amjad

Abstract :

Generation Z the cohort born between approximately 1997 and 2012 has emerged as the most digitally mobilised generation in political history, leveraging platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, X and Discord to organise transnational advocacy and challenge entrenched governance structures. Yet a critical paradox persists ,the generation that trends globally rarely transforms diplomatically. This paper examines the relationship between Generation Z’s social media activism and its tangible impact on international relations, arguing that while digital activism has democratised political expression and produced measurable domestic disruptions, its structural conversion into lasting diplomatic outcomes remains limited and uneven. Drawing on comparative case studies alongside empirical evidence from quantitative platform studies and theoretical frameworks of soft power, generational theory, and networked social movements, this paper identifies the conditions under which digital youth activism does and does not translate into diplomatic recalibration. It further interrogates platform architecture, disinformation dynamics, and the mobilisation-distraction paradox as structural constraints on Gen Z’s diplomatic agency. The findings suggest that while Generation Z constitutes a genuinely novel geopolitical force, the efficacy of their digital activism in reshaping international relations depends critically on context, institutional responsiveness, and the capacity to bridge online momentum with sustained offline institutional engagement.

Keywords –
Gen z, Diplomacy , Social Media ,Digitalisation

CHOKEPOINTS CUT BOTH WAYS: U.S. Advanced Semiconductor Controls and China’s Critical-Mineral and RareEarth Controls, October 2022–June 2026

Authors : Mpilontle Mbambo , Dhanvi Sharma , Vanshika Lodhi , Sampurna Bhowmik

Abstract

Export controls are increasingly central to U.S.-China economic competition. This article compares U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors and semiconductor-manufacturing capabilities with China’s controls on selected critical minerals, rare-earth elements, magnets, and related technologies between October 2022 and June 2026. It distinguishes three forms of strategic leverage: denial, bargaining, and informational leverage. Drawing on weaponisedinterdependence theory, the analysis examines regulatory design, implementation, disruption, and adaptation. The comparison suggests that U.S. controls can slow frontier capability accumulation but depend heavily on allied coordination, while Chinese controls can generate faster supply disruption but also stronger incentives for diversification. In both cases, leverage is conditional on administrative capacity, coalition cohesion, substitutability, and the speed of network escape.

Keywords:
weaponised interdependence; semiconductors; critical minerals; rare earths; export controls; geoeconomics; United States-China rivalry; supply-chain security; economic statecraft

Constitutionalising Emergency Powers in India: Evaluating the restraints on the use of Emergency Powers In line with safeguards against their misuse

Authors : Srijan Kumar Sharma, Mehak Yadav, Yuvraj Singh, Kartik Sharma, Alisha Gupta

Abstract :

This paper provides a comprehensive constitutional analysis of India’s emergency powers framework, examining the historical foundations, structural architecture, and postindependence jurisprudential evolution of Articles 352, 356, 358, and 359 of the Constitution of India. Tracing the philosophical underpinnings of emergency governance from Carl Schmitt’s theory of sovereign exception and John Locke’s executive prerogative to Giorgio Agamben’s doctrine of necessity, the paper situates India’s emergency provisions within a global constitutional discourse on the tension between state authority and individual liberty. Drawing on the Constituent Assembly debates, it reconstructs the framers’ deliberate choices and their cautionary awareness of precedents such as the Weimar Constitution’s catastrophic Article 48. The paper critically examines the systematic misuse of Article 356 between 1959 and 1994, culminating in an analysis of S.R. Bommai v. Union of India (1994), which constitutionalised the floor test doctrine, established federalism as a basic structure element, and subjected presidential proclamations to meaningful judicial review. It further analyses the critical distinction between Articles 358 and 359, with particular attention to the conceptual and practical consequences of suspending rights as opposed to remedies; a distinction rendered judicially decisive in ADM Jabalpur v. Shivkant Shukla (1976) and subsequently rehabilitated through Justice H.R. Khanna’s celebrated dissent. The paper evaluates the Constitution (FortyFourth Amendment) Act, 1978, as a response to the excesses of the 1975 Emergency, including the absolute unsuspendability of Articles 20 and 21, the substitution of ‘armed rebellion’ for ‘internal disturbance,’ and the procedural safeguards on emergency proclamation. The postamendment jurisprudential trajectory is traced through Maneka Gandhi v. Union of India (1978), Minerva Mills Ltd. v. Union of India (1980), and Justice K.S. Puttaswamy (Retd.) v. Union of India (2017), which formally overruled ADM Jabalpur and dramatically expanded the substantive constitutional floor available to citizens during emergency conditions. Through comparative analysis of the German Basic Law, South Africa’s Section 37, and the American experience, the paper identifies structural vulnerabilities that persist in the Indian framework, including the absence of granular proportionality review of emergency measures, the susceptibility of Article 19 rights to suppression, and the contingent nature of judicial independence as an institutional safeguard. The paper concludes that while India’s constitutional architecture has made genuine and significant progress, structural consolidation; through codified sunset clauses, mandatory measure-specific parliamentary accountability, and constitutionally mandated judicial timelines, remains the unfinished work of emergency law reform.

Keywords:
Emergency Powers; Fundamental Rights; Articles 358 and 359; ADM Jabalpur;S.R. Bommai Case; Forty-Fourth Amendment; Basic Structure Doctrine; Judicial Review

Read More »

GOVERNANCE DEFICITS AND IRREGULAR MIGRATION PATHWAYS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INDIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WITH EMPHASIS ON YOUTH VULNERABILITY AND POLICY RESPONSES

Authors : Mpude Blanche Diale Nzalle, Ezekiel Kaba, Monique van Eeden

Abstract :

Irregular migration is a major humanitarian challenge in twenty-first-century Sub-Saharan Africa and India and a persistent global issue. In India, it often occurs through informal agents, driven by high recruitment costs, visa restrictions, and weak governance in states such as Punjab, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. This study aims to examine how governance deficits shape irregular migration in both regions, with a focus on youth vulnerability and policy responses. Using a comparative qualitative/mixed-methods design, it draws on IOM and World Bank reports, national migration documents, and case studies of major routes, with comparative policy review and descriptive statistics. The research indicated that inadequate governance intensifies irregular migration, which in turn hinders economic prospects for youth. The analysis demonstrates that although India has established formal migration frameworks, such as the Ministry of External Affairs and the Protectorate of Emigrants, their effectiveness remains consistently restricted. Findings indicate that governance deficits and high youth unemployment are structural drivers of irregular migration, operating independently of economic factors. Governance failure is identified as a primary cause of irregular migration among youth. The study recommends strengthening migration governance, mechanizing agriculture, providing sustainable youth business financing, and expanding access to education and vocational training. These measures would increase meaningful employment and reduce incentives for dangerous, illegal journeys.

Keywords:
Irregular Migration, Governance, Youth Vulnerability

Read More »