The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Ruel Fordyce, Shivangi Gedam, Ashutosh Sarkar

Abstract :

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, disproportionately affecting rural and coastal populations in developing countries. Early Warning Systems (EWS) have emerged as critical tools for reducing disaster risks; however, their effectiveness is closely tied to the availability and allocation of climate finance. This paper examines the role of climate finance in strengthening EWS, with a primary focus on India and comparative insights from Trinidad and Tobago and Rwanda. Using a qualitative research approach based on secondary data, the study explores how financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund and Systematic Observations Financing Facility support EWS development. Findings indicate that while India has made significant progress in integrating EWS into national disaster management frameworks, gaps remain in financing distribution, local capacity, and last-mile communication. Rwanda demonstrates effective utilization of targeted climate finance for infrastructure upgrades, while Trinidad and Tobago highlights challenges which are typical of Small Island Developing States, including funding gaps and institutional fragmentation. The study concludes that sustained, equitable, and locally targeted climate finance is essential for enhancing resilience and protecting vulnerable populations.

Keywords

Climate finance; Early warning systems; India; Rwanda; Trinidad and Tobago; Rural
vulnerability; Coastal resilience; Disaster risk reduction

Authors : Sakshi Vyas, Jacob Machaka, Lefu Elias Matsikitlane, Anuoluwapo Enitan Popoola

Abstract :

The use of climate finance has become one of the most significant means of combating climate change at the international level, but its conversion into tangible impacts has been extremely uneven in the Global South. The aim of this paper is to examine how the three largest emerging economies, South Africa, Nigeria, and India, implement climate finance and whether the national policy framework is effective in translating finance into tangible impacts. The fivelens approach used for the examination includes policy coherence, implementation, evidence of impact, economic impact, and structural obstacles. The question to be examined is whether the funds work. Based on the results from the analysis, it becomes evident that while all three countries have indeed taken real efforts to align themselves with global conventions like the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, there are implementation gaps when it comes to ground realities. There have been positive developments on the part of South Africa and its REIPPPP and on the part of India and its NAPCC. However, both initiatives still face serious issues related to fragmented governance and lack of financing resources. Nigeria, even though its policy framework has become quite ambitious, suffers from poor institutional coordination, high administrative costs and persistent under-financing of adaptation activities. It is evident that the key determining factor here is not finance but quality of institutions and coherent implementation practices.

Keywords:
Climate Finance, Policy Coherence, Implementation Effectiveness, Emerging Economies, Global South, Institutional Governance, Energy Transition