The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Mpilontle Mbambo , Dhanvi Sharma , Vanshika Lodhi , Sampurna Bhowmik

Abstract

Export controls are increasingly central to U.S.-China economic competition. This article compares U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors and semiconductor-manufacturing capabilities with China’s controls on selected critical minerals, rare-earth elements, magnets, and related technologies between October 2022 and June 2026. It distinguishes three forms of strategic leverage: denial, bargaining, and informational leverage. Drawing on weaponisedinterdependence theory, the analysis examines regulatory design, implementation, disruption, and adaptation. The comparison suggests that U.S. controls can slow frontier capability accumulation but depend heavily on allied coordination, while Chinese controls can generate faster supply disruption but also stronger incentives for diversification. In both cases, leverage is conditional on administrative capacity, coalition cohesion, substitutability, and the speed of network escape.

Keywords:
weaponised interdependence; semiconductors; critical minerals; rare earths; export controls; geoeconomics; United States-China rivalry; supply-chain security; economic statecraft

Authors : Aaditya Dewansh, Huny Thakkar, Edward Mbeleki, Mansha Arya, Zinte Kula

Abstract :

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, has generated sustained debate over whether it functions as a deliberate instrument of debt diplomacy aimed at strategic asset acquisition, or as a development financing mechanism responding to genuine infrastructure deficits in recipient countries. This paper addresses that question through a comparative case study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan: two BRI-engaged South Asian states that share the same creditor yet exhibit structurally distinct outcomes. Drawing on a three-tier qualitative methodology combining comparative case analysis, historical examination of high-value BRI projects, and content analysis of “debt-trap diplomacy” discourse, we argue that strategic dependency in both cases emerges not from engineered default, but through two distinct pathways: fiscal vulnerability in Sri Lanka and infrastructural entrenchment in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, domestic governance failures and aggressive external commercial borrowing produced the conditions for the 2017 Hambantota Port concession, driven by a new government’s fiscal desperation rather than predatory Chinese design. In
Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) generated long-term institutional lock-in through the sheer scale of energy infrastructure investment and an asymmetric bureaucratic coordination model. Across both cases, local political elites exercised agency in seeking Chinese capital to bypass Western conditionalities, and dependency emerged as a by-product of borrower governance failures and project scale rather than Chinese strategic calculation. These findings challenge the binary of debt diplomacy versus development financing, offering instead a mechanism-based account of how BRI engagement produces different forms of strategic influence in different political-economic contexts.

Keywords:
Belt and Road Initiative, debt diplomacy, strategic dependency, fiscal
vulnerability, infrastructure entrenchment

Authors : Umrah Fatima, Manya Saraf

Abstract :

This research paper seeks to examine the serious economic implications of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran conflict in comparison, concentrating particularly on their disruptive consequences for global economic activities. However, while most of the extant literature studies the above mentioned geopolitical situations separately, the current paper attempts to bridge a major research gap by comparing them in one single frame of reference. Using the qualitative approach based on the thematic analysis of secondary data
from international sources, the paper reveals that regional tensions result in extensive economic instability in our highly interconnected world. Notable observations suggest that both the disputes have caused serious fluctuations in energy prices, congestion of the seas atnkey strategic chokepoints, and inflationary pressure across the globe. Moreover, it is important to note that the analysis highlights the significant vulnerability of the Global South, where dependency on food, fuel, and raw materials from other countries has made their
currencies devalue and made them vulnerable to food shortages and debt repayment burdens.

Keywords:
Geopolitical Conflicts, Global Economy, Russia-Ukraine War, Israel-Iran Conflict, Energy Market, Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflationary Pressures, International Trade Global South, Interdependence.