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The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, Obodo Lotachi

Citation :


Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, & Obodo Lotachi. (2026). The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence from A Cross-Country Survey. Institute For Policy Research & Governance, 1(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19805131
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Abstract

Climate change presents considerable global threats, particularly in regions that are dependent on climate sensitive livelihoods. While advances in climate forecasting have improved the availability and accuracy of climate information, a persistent gap remains between information access and actual adaptive behaviour. This study investigates the behavioural mechanisms that translate climate forecasts into adaptive action using a cross-country survey of 309 respondents across six countries: India, Kenya, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria and Japan. Using quantitative method including descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation and multiple linear regression, this study examined the roles of Access to Climate Forecast Information (ACF), Trust in Climate Information (TCI) and Climate Risk Perception (CRP) in shaping Climate Adaptation Behaviour (CAB). Descriptive analysis revealed a pronounced perception-action gap: climate risk perception was high (mean = 4.09) while adaptation behaviour remained moderate (mean = 3.53). Regression analysis demonstrated that trust in climate information (β =0.299, p < 0.001) and access to forecasts (β = 0.179, p = 0.003) were significant predictors of adaptive behaviour, whereas risk perception alone was not statistically significant (p = 0.275). These findings carry important implications for designing climate services and evidence-based policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate Adaptation Behaviour; Climate Forecasts; Trust in Information; Risk
Perception; Cross-Country Analysis; Climate Policy

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