IPRG PUBLICATION

The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, Obodo Lotachi

Citation :

Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, & Obodo Lotachi. (2026). The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence from A Cross-Country Survey. Institute For Policy Research & Governance, 1(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19805131

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Abstract

Climate change presents considerable global threats, particularly in regions that are dependent on climate sensitive livelihoods. While advances in climate forecasting have improved the availability and accuracy of climate information, a persistent gap remains between information access and actual adaptive behaviour. This study investigates the behavioural mechanisms that translate climate forecasts into adaptive action using a cross-country survey of 309 respondents across six countries: India, Kenya, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria and Japan. Using quantitative method including descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation and multiple linear regression, this study examined the roles of Access to Climate Forecast Information (ACF), Trust in Climate Information (TCI) and Climate Risk Perception (CRP) in shaping Climate Adaptation Behaviour (CAB). Descriptive analysis revealed a pronounced perception-action gap: climate risk perception was high (mean = 4.09) while adaptation behaviour remained moderate (mean = 3.53). Regression analysis demonstrated that trust in climate information (β =0.299, p < 0.001) and access to forecasts (β = 0.179, p = 0.003) were significant predictors of adaptive behaviour, whereas risk perception alone was not statistically significant (p = 0.275). These findings carry important implications for designing climate services and evidence-based policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate Adaptation Behaviour; Climate Forecasts; Trust in Information; Risk
Perception; Cross-Country Analysis; Climate Policy

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The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

Authors : Fareed Ahmad, Mwita Chacha, Obodo Lotachi

Abstract

Climate change presents considerable global threats, particularly in regions that are dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods. While advances in climate forecasting have improved the availability and accuracy of climate information, a persistent gap remains between information access and actual adaptive behaviour. This study investigates the
behavioural mechanisms that translate climate forecasts into adaptive action using a cross-country survey of 309 respondents across six countries: India, Kenya, Egypt,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Japan. Using quantitative method including descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation and multiple linear regression, this study examined the roles of Access to Climate Forecast Information (ACF), Trust in Climate Information (TCI) and Climate Risk Perception (CRP) in shaping Climate Adaptation Behaviour (CAB).
Descriptive analysis revealed a pronounced perception-action gap: climate risk
perception was high (mean = 4.09) while adaptation behaviour remained moderate
(mean = 3.53). Regression analysis demonstrated that trust in climate information (β =0.299, p < 0.001) and access to forecasts (β = 0.179, p = 0.003) were significant predictors of adaptive behaviour, whereas risk perception alone was not statistically significant (p = 0.275). These findings carry important implications for designing climate services and evidence-based policy interventions. Keywords:
Climate Adaptation Behaviour; Climate Forecasts; Trust in Information; Risk
Perception; Cross-Country Analysis; Climate Policy

GOVERNANCE DEFICITS AND IRREGULAR MIGRATION PATHWAYS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INDIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WITH EMPHASIS ON YOUTH VULNERABILITY AND POLICY RESPONSES

Authors : Mpude Blanche Diale Nzalle, Ezekiel Kaba, Monique van Eeden

Abstract :

Irregular migration is a major humanitarian challenge in twenty-first-century Sub-Saharan Africa and India and a persistent global issue. In India, it often occurs through informal agents, driven by high recruitment costs, visa restrictions, and weak governance in states such as Punjab, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. This study aims to examine how governance deficits shape irregular migration in both regions, with a focus on youth vulnerability and policy responses. Using a comparative qualitative/mixed-methods design, it draws on IOM and World Bank reports, national migration documents, and case studies of major routes, with comparative policy review and descriptive statistics. The research indicated that inadequate governance intensifies irregular migration, which in turn hinders economic prospects for youth. The analysis demonstrates that although India has established formal migration frameworks, such as the Ministry of External Affairs and the Protectorate of Emigrants, their effectiveness remains consistently restricted. Findings indicate that governance deficits and high youth unemployment are structural drivers of irregular migration, operating independently of economic factors. Governance failure is identified as a primary cause of irregular migration among youth. The study recommends strengthening migration governance, mechanizing agriculture, providing sustainable youth business financing, and expanding access to education and vocational training. These measures would increase meaningful employment and reduce incentives for dangerous, illegal journeys.

Keywords:
Irregular Migration, Governance, Youth Vulnerability

BRICS Plus and Contested Multilateralism: Policy Coordination, Internal Tensions, and the Role of Emerging Middle Powers in Global Governance Reform

Authors: Kamatchi Devi S; Revanth Udutha; Vanshita Baid

Abstract

Academic research has increased its focus on BRICS Plus expansion which occurred during the early 2020s because researchers want to determine whether this alliance serves as a counterforce against the Western-dominated liberal international order or operates mainly as a national interest-driven platform. The research investigates how BRICS Plus members coordinate their policies while assessing their global governance reform efforts and studying how the group handles internal conflicts which arise from the ongoing competition between India and China. The study uses qualitative research methods to analyze secondary data from BRICS summit declarations and institutional documents and existing academic literature. BRICS Plus shows increasing rhetorical unity and institutional governance reform collaboration but actual governance reform partnerships remain limited because of power imbalances and different national objectives and clashing leadership goals. Indian, Brazilian, and South African emerging middle powers use BRICS to improve their strategic independence and international recognition instead of establishing a unified movement against existing power structures. The research demonstrates that BRICS Plus functions as a contested multilateral system which permits international governance changes to proceed through minor
adjustments that avoid major transformations of the current global system.

Key words :
BRICS Plus Expansion, Contested Multilateralism, Global
Governance Reform, Emerging Middle Powers, Policy Coordination and Power
Asymmetries

Gender Neutrality In Law , State & Society

Abstract

An interdisciplinary approach is attempted in this paper to analyse the interplay between gender neutrality and
access to justice. While gender neutrality is often said to be a very progressive idea in law, a host of new problems
are generated when it is applied in a postcolonial society like India. The paper draws from the disciplines such
as law, political science, international relations, history, and statistics to criticize the assumption that neutrality
would bring forth justice all by itself.
Legal analyses show that gender-neutral laws may in fact sometimes uphold patriarchal structures when no steps
are taken to address the underlying inequalities. The political approach ponders over the questions of how
governance, policy language, and representation impact the availability of justice for gender-diverse individuals.
From a data standpoint, it illustrates how binary data catapult non-binary identities into the margins. From a
historical and international perspective, the modern laws are seated within colonial legacies and critique the
global human rights discourse for its limited inclusiveness.
We argue that gender neutrality, though important, remains alone insufficient. A meaningful framework of access
to justice must be context-sensitive, historically aware, and structurally inclusive of all gender identities.

Keywords: Gender Neutrality, Access to Justice, Constitutional Law, Gender-Based Violence, Public Policy,
Legal Reform, Colonial Legacy, International Norms, Gender Data, Inclusive Governance

Climate Finance Utilization in Africa and Asia: Economic Outcomes and Policy Effectiveness

Authors : Sakshi Vyas, Jacob Machaka, Lefu Elias Matsikitlane, Anuoluwapo Enitan Popoola

Abstract :

The use of climate finance has become one of the most significant means of combating climate change at the international level, but its conversion into tangible impacts has been extremely uneven in the Global South. The aim of this paper is to examine how the three largest emerging economies, South Africa, Nigeria, and India, implement climate finance and whether the national policy framework is effective in translating finance into tangible impacts. The fivelens approach used for the examination includes policy coherence, implementation, evidence of impact, economic impact, and structural obstacles. The question to be examined is whether the funds work. Based on the results from the analysis, it becomes evident that while all three countries have indeed taken real efforts to align themselves with global conventions like the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, there are implementation gaps when it comes to ground realities. There have been positive developments on the part of South Africa and its REIPPPP and on the part of India and its NAPCC. However, both initiatives still face serious issues related to fragmented governance and lack of financing resources. Nigeria, even though its policy framework has become quite ambitious, suffers from poor institutional coordination, high administrative costs and persistent under-financing of adaptation activities. It is evident that the key determining factor here is not finance but quality of institutions and coherent implementation practices.

Keywords:
Climate Finance, Policy Coherence, Implementation Effectiveness, Emerging Economies, Global South, Institutional Governance, Energy Transition

Impact of the Smart Cities Mission on Household Cost of Living, Access to Urban Services, and Economic Well-Being: A Field Study of Selected Indian Cities

Authors : Anjana Tripathi ; Divya Natarajan ; Gautam Kumar Mishra ; Soumili Rakshit

Abstract

India’s Smart Cities Mission (SCM), launched in 2015, aims to improve urban livability through targeted investments in infrastructure, service delivery, and digital governance. However, empirical evidence on the household-level economic implications of these interventions remains limited. This study examines the impact of the Smart Cities Mission on household cost of living, access to urban services, and economic well-being in selected Indian cities using a comprehensive secondary data approach.

The analysis integrates unit-level data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) Consumer Expenditure and Housing Conditions rounds to assess changes in household consumption patterns, housing affordability, and expenditure on utilities and transportation. Employment outcomes and income-related proxies are examined using the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), while demographic characteristics, housing quality, and access to basic amenities are drawn from the Census of India. City-level information on project type, investment size, and sectoral focus is sourced from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) Smart Cities Mission dashboards and official reports. A comparative framework is employed to analyze trends across Smart Cities and non-Smart Cities, as well as pre- and post-SCM implementation periods.

By triangulating multiple nationally representative datasets with administrative project data, the study evaluates whether Smart City investments have translated into measurable improvements in household welfare or have contributed to rising costs and uneven access to services. The findings aim to provide evidence-based insights for strengthening the inclusiveness, affordability, and effectiveness of urban development policies under the Smart Cities Mission.

Keywords :
Smart Cities Mission; Secondary Data Analysis; National Sample Survey; Periodic Labour Force Survey; Census of India; Urban Services Access; Household Cost of Living; Economic Well- Being; Urban Policy; Indian Cities

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The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

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The Role Of Climate Forecasts In Shaping Adaptation Behaviour: Evidence From A Cross-Country Survey

GOVERNANCE DEFICITS AND IRREGULAR MIGRATION PATHWAYS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INDIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WITH EMPHASIS ON YOUTH VULNERABILITY AND POLICY RESPONSES

BRICS Plus and Contested Multilateralism: Policy Coordination, Internal Tensions, and the Role of Emerging Middle Powers in Global Governance Reform

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