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CHOKEPOINTS CUT BOTH WAYS: U.S. Advanced Semiconductor Controls and China’s Critical-Mineral and RareEarth Controls, October 2022–June 2026

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Authors : Mpilontle Mbambo , Dhanvi Sharma , Vanshika Lodhi , Sampurna Bhowmik

Citation

Mpilontle Mbambo, Dhanvi Sharma, Vanshika Lodhi, & Sampurna Bhowmik. (2026). CHOKEPOINTS CUT BOTH WAYS: U.S. Advanced Semiconductor Controls and China’s Critical-Mineral and RareEarth Controls, October 2022–June 2026. Institute For Policy Research and Governance, 1(18). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23239226


Abstract

Export controls are increasingly central to U.S.-China economic competition. This article compares U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors and semiconductor-manufacturing capabilities with China’s controls on selected critical minerals, rare-earth elements, magnets, and related technologies between October 2022 and June 2026. It distinguishes three forms of strategic leverage: denial, bargaining, and informational leverage. Drawing on weaponisedinterdependence theory, the analysis examines regulatory design, implementation, disruption, and adaptation. The comparison suggests that U.S. controls can slow frontier capability accumulation but depend heavily on allied coordination, while Chinese controls can generate faster supply disruption but also stronger incentives for diversification. In both cases, leverage is conditional on administrative capacity, coalition cohesion, substitutability, and the speed of network escape.

Keywords: weaponised interdependence; semiconductors; critical minerals; rare earths; export controls; geoeconomics; United States-China rivalry; supply-chain security; economic statecraft

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