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China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Debt Diplomacy or Development Financing? A Comparative Case Study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan

Authors : Aaditya Dewansh, Huny Thakkar, Edward Mbeleki, Mansha Arya, Zinte Kula

Citation :

Aaditya Dewansh, Huny Thakkar, Edward Mbeleki, Mansha Arya, & Zinte Kula. (2026). China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Debt Diplomacy or Development Financing? A Comparative Case Study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Institute For Policy Research and Governance, 1(9). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20714583

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Abstract :

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, has generated sustained debate over whether it functions as a deliberate instrument of debt diplomacy aimed at strategic asset acquisition, or as a development financing mechanism responding to genuine infrastructure deficits in recipient countries. This paper addresses that question through a comparative case study of Sri Lanka and Pakistan: two BRI-engaged South Asian states that share the same creditor yet exhibit structurally distinct outcomes. Drawing on a three-tier qualitative methodology combining comparative case analysis, historical examination of high-value BRI projects, and content analysis of “debt-trap diplomacy” discourse, we argue that strategic dependency in both cases emerges not from engineered default, but through two distinct pathways: fiscal vulnerability in Sri Lanka and infrastructural entrenchment in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, domestic governance failures and aggressive external commercial borrowing produced the conditions for the 2017 Hambantota Port concession, driven by a new government’s fiscal desperation rather than predatory Chinese design. In
Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) generated long-term institutional lock-in through the sheer scale of energy infrastructure investment and an asymmetric bureaucratic coordination model. Across both cases, local political elites exercised agency in seeking Chinese capital to bypass Western conditionalities, and dependency emerged as a by-product of borrower governance failures and project scale rather than Chinese strategic calculation. These findings challenge the binary of debt diplomacy versus development financing, offering instead a mechanism-based account of how BRI engagement produces different forms of strategic influence in different political-economic contexts.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, debt diplomacy, strategic dependency, fiscal
vulnerability, infrastructure entrenchment

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