Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management

Authors : Mpilontle Mbambo , Dhanvi Sharma , Vanshika Lodhi , Sampurna Bhowmik

Abstract

Export controls are increasingly central to U.S.-China economic competition. This article compares U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors and semiconductor-manufacturing capabilities with China’s controls on selected critical minerals, rare-earth elements, magnets, and related technologies between October 2022 and June 2026. It distinguishes three forms of strategic leverage: denial, bargaining, and informational leverage. Drawing on weaponisedinterdependence theory, the analysis examines regulatory design, implementation, disruption, and adaptation. The comparison suggests that U.S. controls can slow frontier capability accumulation but depend heavily on allied coordination, while Chinese controls can generate faster supply disruption but also stronger incentives for diversification. In both cases, leverage is conditional on administrative capacity, coalition cohesion, substitutability, and the speed of network escape.

Keywords:
weaponised interdependence; semiconductors; critical minerals; rare earths; export controls; geoeconomics; United States-China rivalry; supply-chain security; economic statecraft

Authors : Nandiinii Gupta , Aanvi Kapoor , Bhumi Goyal , Khushal Goel , Lumbini Anand , Venika Sai Talluri

ABSTRACT

The Galwan Valley clash in June 2020 changed the way India and China saw each other. It began as a military clash along the Line of Actual Control, but its effects went beyond that of a border conflict. It changed how both countries talked about security, how they built their narratives, and how they acted toward one another. This study analyses this shift through the lens of power, rhetoric and perception. It aims to understand how China’s image as a threat changed within India’s foreign policy after Galwan. In order to provide a clearer picture, the study compares Galwan to the 2017 Doklam standoff. It draws on public statements, official press releases, and parliamentary records from both India and China, examining them for shifts in tone, recurring themes, and how each country described the other’s intentions. The findings show that both India and China constructed threats by blaming the other side’s intentions. Each used existing bilateral agreements selectively, framing them in ways that supported its own position. Both also pointed to the other’s infrastructure projects as evidence of an attempt to alter the existing situation on the ground. One key difference between the two crises lies in how they ended. Doklam was resolved through diplomatic talks, and both sides were able to present the outcome as a success. Galwan did not end this way. It led instead to a prolonged military stand-off, in which the confidence-building measures that had once been trusted lost their credibility rather than restoring it. Drawing on Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory, the study argues that the shift in India’s perception of China after Galwan was greater than what military economic changes alone could explain. This suggests that perception, shaped by narrative and rhetoric, played a role as significant as material capability itself. Briefly, the shift in India’s view of China was not just about power. It was about how India and China told stories about each other, and how those stories reshaped the way India came to see China as a threat.

KEYWORDS:
Indo-China relations, Galwan Crisis, Threat Construction, Balance of Threat Theory, Strategic Rhetoric, Realism, Line of Actual Control (LAC), Narrative and Perception