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Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management

Authors : Hridoy Pran Sarma , Ashi Agrawal

Citation :

Hridoy Pran Sarma, & Ashi Agrawal. (2026). Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management. Institute For Policy Research and Governance. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20631474

Hridoy Pran Sarma, & Ashi Agrawal. (2026). Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management. Institute For Policy Research and Governance. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20631474

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Abstract :

In the modern-day world, war is not only about fighting on the battlefield but also manipulating the belief of the opponent country using intelligence. During war escalation, people form opinions based not on their personal experience, but from news stories and government releases, along with other posts on social media. As a result, they become more susceptible to misperceptions; these are misconstrued situations employed to frighten, sow discord and garner the unthinking support of the public for the providing of military firepower. Due to an increase in the use of social media and modern means of communication, this task has become even easier as not everyone is well-equipped to measure what is happening during wars. Misconceived observations of the conflict can aggravate and harm the process of resolution. The paper seeks to ascertain the role of the government and media in distorting the public opinion during wars by analysing case studies such as Russia – Ukraine War and other major wars worldwide. Usage of management
perceptions, misinformation, and the war in which does escalate.

Keywords: Perception Management, Misinformation, War Escalation, Public Opinion,
Media Literacy, Information Warfare.

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The New Cold War in the IndoPacific: US-China Rivalry & the Race of Global Influence

Authors : Shruti Agarwal, Harshika Pandla, Mokshadaa Gupta, Revanth Netha, Vanshika Kakkar

Abstract :

This paper explores how maritime rivalry, coalition-building, and regional governance in the Indo-Pacific region are being reshaped due to ongoing competition between the United States and China. Instead of framing this as a simple replay of Cold War bloc politics, the study treats the region as an arena where states adjust their positions through overlapping alliances, minilateral arrangements, and strategic narratives rather than direct military confrontation. Empirically, the analysis follows three main strands: the indirect influence of the RussiaUkraine war on the region’s maritime strategy, the shift in India-China rivalry from land borders to sea lanes, and the formation of AUKUS and the Quad as key coalitions in regional security politics. Drawing on policy reports and academic studies, the paper uses interpretative discourse analysis to read how governments and experts deploy ideas of stability, rules and order to justify changing maritime postures and new forms of strategic cooperation.

Key Words :
Maritime Cooperation, Hegemony, Balance of power, Strategic Cooperation, QUAD, AUKUS, Freedom of Navigation (FON)

ENHANCING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE TO SUPPORT FOOD SECURITY IN VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL AFRICA

Authors : Adeleye Joshua Adeyemi, Nontobeko Zakhona Andiswa Ngubane, Mushe Khomola

Abstract :

Climate change remains to cripple food security across Central Africa, where a large proportion of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture survival. This study evaluated the environmental, economic, energy and agricultural factors shaping climate resilience and food security in vulnerable communities, using secondary time-series data spanning 2000 to 2025 across 14 variables, including 2 climate resilience variables (mean annual temperature and annual rainfall). Descriptive statistics, pre- and post-2013 period comparisons, Pearson correlation analysis, detrended correlation and multiple regression analysis were applied using SPSS. Findings show that undernourishment averaged 30% over the period, with persistently low cereal yields and minimal electricity access. Rising mean annual temperature (r = -0.610, p = 0.002) was significantly correlated with declining cereal yields (r = -0.880, p < 0.001). In the multiple regression model (R² = 0.907), electricity access and GDP per capita are the two strongest independent predictors of undernourishment, while political stability remained a significant bivariate correlate. These results suggest that energy infrastructure and governance, above agricultural land use or GDP, are central to food security outcomes defining how resilience-building efforts should be concentrated. Keywords:
Climate resilience, Food security, Agricultural productivity, Governance, Policy, Central Africa.

OUTPUT VS OUTCOME ANALYSIS OFPMAY G & POSHAN ABHIYAAN SCHEMES

Authors : Pushpa Akshaya Miriyala , Armaan Sareen , Shravani Tharanath

Abstract :

India’s flagship welfare schemes – Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G) and POSHAN Abhiyaan, represent landmark commitments to rural housing provisioning and nutritional security respectively. Yet persistent gap separates the administrative growth outputs with substantive development outcomes. This paper undertakes a qualitative output-versus- outcome analysis of both schemes, interrogating structural gaps between quantitative delivery metrics – houses sanctioned, anganwadi coverage, beneficiaries enrolled and lived realities of human capability enhancement. The study critically examines how implementation accuracy, convergence deficits, workforce vacancies, community level absorption mediate the translation of output impact to welfare impact. Data from NFHS-4&5 trends, CAG audit observations, POSHAN tracker data bring a systemic mark: output saturation co-existing with outcome stagnation. The paper argues for realigned evaluation that centres nutritional security and housing quality as primary indices of scheme effectiveness over mere physical completion rates.

KEYWORDS :

Maternal Morbidity, Open Defecation (ODF), Aspirational Districts, Anganwadi Health Workers (AHW), Take Home Rations, Growth Monitoring Promotion Sessions.

The Implementation Gap in Youth Entrepreneurship Policy: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and India

Authors : Rachael Osioyemi Olaiya, Shreeya Gupta, Arya Rani, Nithin Reddy

Abstract :

India and Nigeria are two of the world’s largest developing economies, both marked by young, fast-growing populations and fundamental youth unemployment, prompting governments to create entrepreneurship programmes. Despite these programmes, most businesses remain informal. Roughly 80% of Nigerian SMEs fail within five years, and nearly 90% of India’s youth workforce is informally employed. Output-focused evaluations fail to capture the implementation gap between formal policy and its on-the-ground effectiveness. This paper evaluates why youth entrepreneurship policies in India and Nigeria consistently fail to produce sustainable outcomes, and what both countries can learn from economies that have successfully closed this gap. Adopting a qualitative-comparative case study approach, the paper examines India and Nigeria as primary cases benchmarked against South Korea and Rwanda. Drawing on national MSME surveys, ILOSTAT, World Bank Enterprise Survey, GEM India, and government program evaluations, the paper applies Stam’s Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Framework as the analytical lens across all four countries. The analysis reveals that India and Nigeria’s ecosystems remain weak across formal institutions, finance, infrastructure, and intermediate organisations, reflecting a governance approach that controls outcomes rather than building conditions required by businesses to grow and formalise. South Korea’s unified SME Ministry, collateral-free policy funds, alongside Rwanda’s regulatory reforms, demonstrate that closing this gap requires deliberate ecosystem governance rather than direct financial interjection. The paper concludes that high failure rates reflect design flaws in ecosystems built for the formalized urban minority, not low entrepreneurial ambition, and calls for development policy to measure success by accessible infrastructure rather than loan disbursement volume.

Keywords:
Youth Entrepreneurship, Implementation Gap, Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, Informality, Ecosystem Governance, India, Nigeria

Constitutionalising Emergency Powers in India: Evaluating the restraints on the use of Emergency Powers In line with safeguards against their misuse

Authors : Srijan Kumar Sharma, Mehak Yadav, Yuvraj Singh, Kartik Sharma, Alisha Gupta

Abstract :

This paper provides a comprehensive constitutional analysis of India’s emergency powers framework, examining the historical foundations, structural architecture, and postindependence jurisprudential evolution of Articles 352, 356, 358, and 359 of the Constitution of India. Tracing the philosophical underpinnings of emergency governance from Carl Schmitt’s theory of sovereign exception and John Locke’s executive prerogative to Giorgio Agamben’s doctrine of necessity, the paper situates India’s emergency provisions within a global constitutional discourse on the tension between state authority and individual liberty. Drawing on the Constituent Assembly debates, it reconstructs the framers’ deliberate choices and their cautionary awareness of precedents such as the Weimar Constitution’s catastrophic Article 48. The paper critically examines the systematic misuse of Article 356 between 1959 and 1994, culminating in an analysis of S.R. Bommai v. Union of India (1994), which constitutionalised the floor test doctrine, established federalism as a basic structure element, and subjected presidential proclamations to meaningful judicial review. It further analyses the critical distinction between Articles 358 and 359, with particular attention to the conceptual and practical consequences of suspending rights as opposed to remedies; a distinction rendered judicially decisive in ADM Jabalpur v. Shivkant Shukla (1976) and subsequently rehabilitated through Justice H.R. Khanna’s celebrated dissent. The paper evaluates the Constitution (FortyFourth Amendment) Act, 1978, as a response to the excesses of the 1975 Emergency, including the absolute unsuspendability of Articles 20 and 21, the substitution of ‘armed rebellion’ for ‘internal disturbance,’ and the procedural safeguards on emergency proclamation. The postamendment jurisprudential trajectory is traced through Maneka Gandhi v. Union of India (1978), Minerva Mills Ltd. v. Union of India (1980), and Justice K.S. Puttaswamy (Retd.) v. Union of India (2017), which formally overruled ADM Jabalpur and dramatically expanded the substantive constitutional floor available to citizens during emergency conditions. Through comparative analysis of the German Basic Law, South Africa’s Section 37, and the American experience, the paper identifies structural vulnerabilities that persist in the Indian framework, including the absence of granular proportionality review of emergency measures, the susceptibility of Article 19 rights to suppression, and the contingent nature of judicial independence as an institutional safeguard. The paper concludes that while India’s constitutional architecture has made genuine and significant progress, structural consolidation; through codified sunset clauses, mandatory measure-specific parliamentary accountability, and constitutionally mandated judicial timelines, remains the unfinished work of emergency law reform.

Keywords:
Emergency Powers; Fundamental Rights; Articles 358 and 359; ADM Jabalpur;S.R. Bommai Case; Forty-Fourth Amendment; Basic Structure Doctrine; Judicial Review

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The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on the Global Economy:A Comparative Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel Conflicts

Authors : Umrah Fatima, Manya Saraf

Abstract :

This research paper seeks to examine the serious economic implications of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran conflict in comparison, concentrating particularly on their disruptive consequences for global economic activities. However, while most of the extant literature studies the above mentioned geopolitical situations separately, the current paper attempts to bridge a major research gap by comparing them in one single frame of reference. Using the qualitative approach based on the thematic analysis of secondary data
from international sources, the paper reveals that regional tensions result in extensive economic instability in our highly interconnected world. Notable observations suggest that both the disputes have caused serious fluctuations in energy prices, congestion of the seas atnkey strategic chokepoints, and inflationary pressure across the globe. Moreover, it is important to note that the analysis highlights the significant vulnerability of the Global South, where dependency on food, fuel, and raw materials from other countries has made their
currencies devalue and made them vulnerable to food shortages and debt repayment burdens.

Keywords:
Geopolitical Conflicts, Global Economy, Russia-Ukraine War, Israel-Iran Conflict, Energy Market, Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflationary Pressures, International Trade Global South, Interdependence.

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IPRG PUBLICATION

Shaping of Perceptions & Misperceptions Among Masses During War Escalations : A Comparative Analysis of Information Dynamics, Media Influence, and Perception Management

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